Reformed UN Security Council: The Taiwanese crisis of 2049
The prospect of a peaceful unipolar world that briefly surfaced right after the end of the Cold War all but vanished by the early 2020s. While the influence of yesterday’s behemoths began to erode, new major powers stepped to the fore and a more level playing field with multiple centres of power gradually emerged. Faced with cataclysmic consequences of environmental degradation, numerous smaller geopolitical crises, destabilising effects of rapid technological development, rising social inequality and extremism, some nation-states sought greater institutional integration, while others decided to tread their own, independent path.
East Asia was one of the few parts of the world where the old Westphalian order still seemed to endure. Yet despite the region’s prosperity, the geopolitical balance was offset by China’s overbearing might. As Chinese hegemonic aspirations continued to go unfulfilled, tensions in the region rose steadily. The only thing that kept open conflict at bay was the economic vitality of the region and the importance it carried for the prosperity of the rest of the world.
For Taiwan, this was a time of relative peace and all-round societal advancement. Riding a wave of unprecedented technological development, coupled with lax transnational regulation, it managed to established itself as both a global tech hub and a key regional offshore financial centre. The long-time issue of Taiwanese-Chinese relations was never at the forefront of regional politics, especially since a de facto independent Taiwan conferred many advantages to other regional actors, including China.
All of that started to change in the years following the reunification of the two Koreas in 2039. Recognising the strength a united Korea could bring to bear in the coming decades, China began to consolidate its power. After a brutal crackdown on separatist movements in the Xinjiang province in 2041, several hard-line members of the Chinese political leadership called for a change in policy towards Taiwan. This caused a great deal of unease among the Taiwanese population and raised major concerns about Chinese territorial ambitions in the region. The internal political narrative in China grew increasingly radicalised, setting the stage for a major shake-up.
When the world was plunged into the Third Great Recession in 2047, states in East and South East Asia became embroiled in an overt trade war, with only a matter of time until an armed conflict erupted. Fearing that China might move to occupy Taiwan in the event of a major regional conflict, the Taiwanese government capitalised on its neighbours’ fears to secure both political and military support against eventual Chinese aggression and formally declared independence.
The following positions are available (for options marked with * previous experience is recommended):
Permanent members (P6):
United States of America
People’s Republic of China
Grand Patriarchy of Russia
United Kingdom of Ethiopia
Republic of India
Non-permanent members (10):
Federative Emirates of Arabia
Directorate of Singapore
Republic of Chile
Republic of Kazakhstan
Incorporated Territory of the Republic of Kiribati (based in New Zealand)
United Mexican States
Free State of Siberia
United People’s Republic of Korea
Renaissance Republic of South Africa